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Market Summary, Articles and Events
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Happy New Year!
I hope you had a great holiday and a well-deserved chance to relax, connect with family and friends, and reflect on the year.
As we close out another year and look ahead to the NYC real estate market in 2026, it’s helpful to step back and consider where the market has been and where it may be headed.
I spent some time digging into the data across Brooklyn and Manhattan, and a few core themes stand out: resilience, balance, and price strength. [You can find my full year-end analysis here].
With the rate-driven market reset well behind us, demand has remained remarkably consistent. Much of this reflects demographics, the ongoing need for housing, and the overall attractiveness of the New York City market. At the same time, supply has remained persistently limited, and upward pressure on prices has been the result. In fact, across much of Brooklyn and Manhattan, prices have been rising steadily for more than two years.
Looking at the data over the past five years, it’s clear that after mortgage rates surged in 2022, prices adjusted quickly and modestly. That correction occurred early. Since early 2023 in Brooklyn and early 2024 in Manhattan, prices (including price per square foot) have trended consistently higher, even as mortgage rates remained elevated.
Rather than continuing to fall, the market adjusted through lower transaction volume, greater buyer selectivity, and more normalized negotiation, not broad-based price declines. In other words, New York City real estate has demonstrated that it can support higher prices without rate relief.
What This Means for 2026
- There are no clear supply catalysts on the horizon that would materially change the supply–demand balance.
- If mortgage rates decline, the most likely outcome is more competition, not lower prices, particularly for well-located, supply-constrained properties.
- Market outcomes will remain highly local, driven by neighborhood, property type, condition, and pricing strategy.
For Buyers
Waiting for a broad market selloff has, so far, meant higher prices with no improvement in affordability. The supply logjam is unlikely to change anytime soon. Negotiation opportunities still exist, but they are property-specific. The risk today is no longer buying too early, it’s waiting too long in a market that has already resumed upward momentum.
For Sellers
The data suggests the floor is behind us. That said, while demand exists, it is selective, not euphoric. Pricing power is real, but it is earned, not automatic. Buyers are smart and well-informed, and the market continues to reward preparation and realistic pricing. Well-presented, well-priced properties transact efficiently, while overpricing typically leads to longer marketing times, not higher outcomes.
That’s a wrap for now. I hope you enjoy this month’s newsletter and find the research, articles, and local events helpful. As always, I’m here if I can be a resource.
Best wishes for the year ahead, and thank you, as always, for your trust, continued confidence, and the opportunity to work with many of you.
If you’re considering a move, or simply curious about your options, feel free to reach out for a no-pressure conversation tailored to your goals.
All the Best,
Steve
