Monthly Commentary

In this month's edition, I recap recent market activity and share research, articles, and events I hope you’ll find interesting.

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Commentary: A Resilient Market, an Election and the Importance of Looking Beyond the Numbers

With the midterm elections behind us and the holidays approaching, we're entering what should be an interesting final stretch of the 2026 real estate market.

While economic uncertainty, elevated mortgage rates and affordability concerns continue to influence buyer and seller decisions, New York City's housing market has demonstrated considerable strength. That said, the market is far from uniform, with meaningful differences across boroughs, neighborhoods, property types and price points.

Will the Election Bring Buyers Back?

One interesting perspective comes from longtime New York City real estate appraiser and market analyst Jonathan Miller, who recently joined UrbanDigs for a discussion of housing trends and the broader economy.

Miller described research dating back to 1980 suggesting that Manhattan real estate transactions tend to slow in the months leading up to federal elections, whether presidential or midterm. Interestingly, activity has historically rebounded following Election Day, sometimes almost immediately.

His explanation isn't necessarily that buyers favor one political outcome over another. Rather, the conclusion of an election removes an element of uncertainty, allowing buyers and sellers who may have been waiting on the sidelines to move forward.

Miller also made an interesting observation about mortgage rates. While much of the discussion tends to focus on when rates might decline, he believes that stability may be just as important. Predictable borrowing costs make it easier for buyers and sellers to plan, whereas significant fluctuations can discourage transactions.

Whether we'll experience a similar post-election pickup this year remains to be seen, particularly given the broader economic environment.

A Market That's Holding Up, but Not Everywhere Equally

Corcoran's third-quarter Brooklyn market report showed encouraging signs, with signed contracts increasing 8% year-over-year to their highest third-quarter level since 2022. Inventory also expanded by 21%, providing buyers with more choices while prices remained relatively firm.

More recent October data from UrbanDigs, however, suggests some softening. Brooklyn recorded approximately 531 signed contracts, about 4% below last year and roughly 15% below typical seasonal levels. Manhattan, by comparison, remained closer to its normal seasonal pace.

Manhattan's higher-end market continues to demonstrate particular strength, supported by substantial cash purchasing power and wealth generated in the financial markets. Entry-level properties, where buyers tend to be more dependent on mortgage financing, have faced greater challenges.

The rental market tells another story. With September median rents reaching $5,395 in Manhattan and $4,300 in Brooklyn, affordability remains a challenge for renters as well as prospective buyers.

Taken together, the numbers suggest a market that remains active but increasingly selective. Buyers are willing to compete for desirable properties, although pricing, condition and location continue to play an important role in determining outcomes.

Looking Beyond the Numbers

During October, I published three articles examining property values from different perspectives.

The first explored Park Slope's summer townhouse market, where 37 properties closed at a median price of $4.95 million. While the overall results reflected strong demand, individual sales revealed considerable differences in how buyers valued location, architectural character, renovation quality and usable living space.

Another article examined the Spring Lake and Sea Girt markets at the Jersey Shore, where larger lots, proximity to the beach and redevelopment potential can have a greater influence on value than the size or condition of the existing home.

My most recent article drew on a townhouse bidding war in Gowanus, illustrating why the closest comparable sale isn't necessarily the most relevant. Differences in zoning, property condition and potential restrictions can substantially affect value, even among properties located just blocks apart.

It also raised a question that I believe every buyer should consider: At what price should I still want to win?

Although these articles examine different markets, they reinforce a common theme: real estate is highly local, and broad market statistics don't always tell the complete story. Understanding what makes an individual property valuable, and what may limit that value, is often more important than focusing exclusively on neighborhood averages or price per square foot.

As we approach Thanksgiving, I've included a selection of recent market reports, articles and local events that I hope you'll find interesting.

As always, please feel free to reach out if you'd like to discuss the market or a particular property.

Wishing you and your family a wonderful Thanksgiving!

All the best,

Steve