Looking forward to Thanksgiving? I know I am!
Happy November!
My market update is arriving a bit late this month, but I have a good reason! I’ve been deep in the weeds building a, excuse my French, “kick-ass” model for valuing homes in New York City and the Jersey Shore. Think of it as my own version of Zillow’s Zestimate, only better, because I actually know what’s in it, can tailor it situationally, and can use it to give my clients better advice. Plus, it seems to produce more reliable prices!
To quote Rodney Dangerfield from Back to School, “I feel like I just gave birth… to an accountant!” That pretty much sums up my last three weeks.
It all started with a Spring Lake client who wanted to understand her home’s value and develop a sound sell/buy strategy. The appraisal came in lower than expected... surprising for a property just one block from the beach. Digging deeper, it became more clear as to why:
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Limited comparable sales
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Low turnover
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Wide variation in lot sizes, proximity to the beach, and zoning
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Frequent teardowns — where land value and rebuild potential matter as much as the structure itself
With that backdrop, I knew that a standard Comparative Market Analysis (CMA) or simple “price-per-square-foot” approach wasn’t going to cut it.
So, I built a multi-factor regression model using roughly 350 sales over six years to establish a base pricing framework, then layered in adjustments to pinpoint an expected value range. The result aligned far more closely with intuition and well above the appraisal. I packaged the findings into a detailed market report, and my client was ecstatic. It validated her instincts and provided a stronger foundation for future decisions, It also reminded me how powerful a rigorous data-driven approach can be.
Better yet, I was able to adapt the model for Brooklyn townhouses. The variables differ, with fewer teardowns and less land-driven upside, but the framework creates a more solid pricing foundation and helps identify when price per square foot shouldn’t be the dominant metric.
Bottom line: I now have a more useful tool to advise buyers and sellers. Additionally, I can more easily and systematically identify whether a property is over- or under-priced, and better isolate where hidden value may exist. As the market becomes less momentum-driven and more rational, tools like this will matter even more.
I wanted to share this because a) I'm excited about it! - go figure :) and b) it's already had a favorable impact on discussions with clients. If you’re curious how it might apply to your home or an upcoming purchase, I’d be happy to talk.
Enjoy this month’s newsletter — I hope you find the research, articles, and local events valuable. And as always, I’m here if I can help.
If you’re considering a move, or simply curious about your options, feel free to reach out for a no-pressure conversation tailored to your goals.
All the Best,
Steve
