Commentary
July 29, 2026
By Steve Segretta
When I walk down a street in Spring Lake, I’ll often come across something that seems difficult to explain.
Two homes on the same block. Similar in age. Comparable in size. Yet one may sell for $4 million while another commands $7 million, or considerably more.
At first glance, the explanation seems obvious. One house must simply be larger, newer, or more updated.
Those characteristics explain part of the story, but rarely all of it.
But after analyzing hundreds of Spring Lake sales over the past several years, I've come to appreciate that the largest differences in value are often driven by characteristics that are far more subtle, and not always immediately apparent.
Take lot size, for example.
An additional 25 or 50 feet of frontage may not seem especially meaningful while standing in the backyard, yet it can fundamentally change a property's redevelopment potential, privacy, curb appeal, outdoor living space, and ultimately, its market value.
In Spring Lake, homes on 100-foot lots have, in many cases, appreciated substantially more than properties on narrower parcels. The difference isn't simply a larger yard. Buyers are often placing a premium on flexibility, scarcity, and long-term potential.
But lot dimensions tell only part of the story.
Location is equally important, not simply whether a home is close to the beach, but which block it's on, the orientation of the lot, the character of the surrounding homes, the walk to town, and even the feel of the neighborhood itself. Two properties separated by only a few hundred feet can be viewed very differently by buyers.
The house itself adds another layer.
Is it a beautifully renovated home ready for immediate enjoyment? A well-maintained legacy property with room for future improvement? Or is the primary value in the land, making it an attractive redevelopment opportunity?
Each appeals to a different buyer. And different buyers place value on different attributes.
That's one of the reasons I've always believed comparable sales, while essential, rarely tell the entire story.
Comparable sales tell us where the market has been. They don't always explain where it's going.
Every valuation begins with comparable sales, but it doesn't end there. I also evaluate inventory levels, buyer demand, redevelopment activity, pricing strategy, and the characteristics that make one property fundamentally more desirable than another. When appropriate, I supplement that analysis with statistical modeling to test whether those conclusions are supported by the data.
One recent analysis reinforced that point.
Using hundreds of verified Spring Lake sales, I built a multifactor regression model to evaluate how measurable characteristics contributed to sale prices and estimate the market value of individual properties. The model evolved from work I originally developed for New York City townhouses, but it required significant modification to reflect the unique characteristics of the Jersey Shore market. Variables such as zoning, lot dimensions, location, building size, condition, redevelopment potential, and construction costs all influence value here in ways that differ markedly from an urban market.
The results were revealing. The model explained much of the variation in sale prices, confirming that factors such as lot dimensions, location, and building size have measurable effects on value. But it also highlighted something equally important: not every premium can be explained statistically.
Some homes consistently sold for more than traditional metrics alone would predict.
Why?
Because buyers don't purchase spreadsheets. They purchase homes.
Some properties possess qualities that are difficult to quantify, a particularly desirable block, exceptional architectural character, an unusually graceful floor plan, or simply a sense that "this one feels different." Those characteristics create scarcity, and scarcity often commands a premium.
That's why pricing a home isn't simply about averaging nearby sales.
It's about understanding how buyers are likely to perceive this particular property relative to everything else currently available.
Sometimes the difference between an average result and an exceptional one isn't the market itself. It's recognizing what truly creates value and developing a pricing strategy that reflects it.
One of the things I enjoy most about working with sellers is helping them understand those distinctions.
Not because every home should be priced aggressively.
And not because every seller should hold out for the highest possible number.
Rather, because the best pricing decisions begin with a thoughtful understanding of what makes a property unique, and how today's buyers are likely to respond to it.
After all, two homes may stand on the same street.
That doesn't necessarily mean the market sees them the same way.
